I’m really curious why Biden thinks a negotiated end is likely. The situation looks really bad for Russia from where I’m sitting, and if that doesn’t change how would a negotiation work? The Americans have awesome intelligence on Russia, but they also have nuclear fears that might lead upper leadership to do some wishful thinking.
Ukraine has been in war economy mode for over a year now, and it’s not sustainable long term while all of the sanctions on Russia haven’t crippled their economy to the point of being unable to continue fighting. Their ability to fight Russia is largely dependent on continued western aid, largely from the US, which has become increasingly controversial politically. The current counteroffensive has been a slow, long grind without much in the way of territorial gain so far, further decreasing popular support for Ukraine in the west. If Russian sympathizers in the US government manage to block aid to Ukraine before they are able to break Russia’s defenses, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will run out of funding and equipment and be forced to negotiate best case scenario, or be overrun by the Russians worst case scenario. It is still a long time until the next US election so they should still fight, but unless they’re able to make dramatic gains like they did previously, Ukraine may have to negotiate eventually
In the US it’s controversial in the sense that there’s 40% of the stakeholders that want to stop, and 60% that wouldn’t dream of it. Just “controversial” makes it sound like there’s wide-ranging debate. As far as I know the rest of the West is still onboard too, and they’re not a negligible source of aid, just somewhat smaller than the US.
It would be a big blow to lose the US, though, you’re right about that.
This war will either grind through the male population of both countries (which is probably good for US interests tbh) or will end in negotiations.
Russia has a few things in abundance: land, labour, and artillery. They can afford to defend for years while taking much fewer casualties than the Ukrainian side (simply by virtue of, y’know, not attacking) and simply waiting to exhaust Ukraine’s human capital.
Russia can mine every field from Bakhmut to Moscow. Their domestic industrial capacity is skyrocketing and they (like Ukraine) can still import consumer electronics from manufacturers in China. They’ve found solid buyers in India for their O&G who are less concerned about international backlash as they are about making money.
Eventually Ukraine will run out of able-bodied men in an offensive op. So will Russia if Russia decides to have another go at the offensive meat grinder.
Attrition benefits neither Ukraine nor Russia, but it does benefit the West. So…
I’m really curious why Biden thinks a negotiated end is likely. The situation looks really bad for Russia from where I’m sitting, and if that doesn’t change how would a negotiation work? The Americans have awesome intelligence on Russia, but they also have nuclear fears that might lead upper leadership to do some wishful thinking.
Ukraine has been in war economy mode for over a year now, and it’s not sustainable long term while all of the sanctions on Russia haven’t crippled their economy to the point of being unable to continue fighting. Their ability to fight Russia is largely dependent on continued western aid, largely from the US, which has become increasingly controversial politically. The current counteroffensive has been a slow, long grind without much in the way of territorial gain so far, further decreasing popular support for Ukraine in the west. If Russian sympathizers in the US government manage to block aid to Ukraine before they are able to break Russia’s defenses, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will run out of funding and equipment and be forced to negotiate best case scenario, or be overrun by the Russians worst case scenario. It is still a long time until the next US election so they should still fight, but unless they’re able to make dramatic gains like they did previously, Ukraine may have to negotiate eventually
In the US it’s controversial in the sense that there’s 40% of the stakeholders that want to stop, and 60% that wouldn’t dream of it. Just “controversial” makes it sound like there’s wide-ranging debate. As far as I know the rest of the West is still onboard too, and they’re not a negligible source of aid, just somewhat smaller than the US.
It would be a big blow to lose the US, though, you’re right about that.
And where exactly are you sitting? Because that is not at all how it looks to people paying attention.
Sorry, I’ve already hit my quota for pointless hexbear arguments in the last 30 days.
This war will either grind through the male population of both countries (which is probably good for US interests tbh) or will end in negotiations.
Russia has a few things in abundance: land, labour, and artillery. They can afford to defend for years while taking much fewer casualties than the Ukrainian side (simply by virtue of, y’know, not attacking) and simply waiting to exhaust Ukraine’s human capital.
Russia can mine every field from Bakhmut to Moscow. Their domestic industrial capacity is skyrocketing and they (like Ukraine) can still import consumer electronics from manufacturers in China. They’ve found solid buyers in India for their O&G who are less concerned about international backlash as they are about making money.
Eventually Ukraine will run out of able-bodied men in an offensive op. So will Russia if Russia decides to have another go at the offensive meat grinder.
Attrition benefits neither Ukraine nor Russia, but it does benefit the West. So…