U.S. President Joe Biden on Thursday called China a "ticking time bomb" because of its economic challenges and said the country was in trouble because of weak growth.
More than a fifth of Chinese age 16 to 24 are out of work.
Spain and other southern EU countries have experienced this, and even higher unemployment rates in the past, but with China’s rather large population, we’re about 30 million young people in a country with few safety nets.
China’s economy barely grew in the second quarter from the first and youth unemployment hit a record high in June, providing evidence of a fading recovery.
So what is Xi going to do when these 30 million hit the streets to demonstrate? Draft them and attack Taiwan?
It’s a demographic. I’m sure there are Chinese students in there but a lot less than you think. The.secondary school system is selective in China. Point is that China has negative impacts from economic downturn which is affecting its population.
The sources OP is likely citing, such as this one from CNBC (not an archived link, sorry), say it’s the youth unemployment rate, which I would assume does not include students or individuals not actively seeking work.
OP if you’d like to link your own preferred sources please do.
“The sluggish pace of growth in 2023 is piling pressure on Beijing to reignite an expansion that is in danger of fizzling out as consumers refrain from spending and exports slump. A drawn-out real estate crunch and shaky local-government finances are compounding the gloom. More than a fifth of Chinese age 16 to 24 are out of work.”
Thank you for the citation. The issue here is that ‘out of work’ is not a very useful phrase. Taken at face value, it just means not working and is not necessarily synonymous with unemployment in the way economists use it (i.e. actively looking for work but unable to find it).
This is possibly why queermunist expressed confusion about whether it included students. At first blanch, a ~20% unemployment rate does sound high.
I did turn up a useful SCMP article which highlights:
Since 2018, China has used a monthly survey-based unemployment rate as its main indicator. The data captures all regular urban residents, does not include an upper age limit and the [National Bureau of Statistics] claims it also includes migrant workers…
… to be considered unemployed, a worker needs to have been actively looking for a job in the past three months and be able to start work within two weeks; otherwise, [they are] not counted as employed or unemployed.
I’d like to refer back to the CNBC article (also using a 21.3% unemployment rate for 16 - 24 bracket) which notes that the unemployment for the graduate cohort appears to be temporary rather than structural. It’s not an enviable position to be in, definitely, but I wouldn’t say it’s at the point where students will demonstrate en masse like you suggested.
As of Jun 2023, the “The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24(%)” was 21.3%.
The “Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 25 to 59(%)” was 4.1%.
The overall unemployment rate was 5.2%.
The situation isn’t really a lack of jobs, it’s that younger generations don’t want to work the factory jobs (because they all studied for better jobs) and there is pressure to look after parents. Not only is there an imbalance in young vs old people due to the one child policy but China also passed a law that required children to provide mental and financial support to their parents. Some parents are effectively paying their children to look after them, thereby removing them from the workforce count.
More than a fifth of Chinese age 16 to 24 are out of work.
Spain and other southern EU countries have experienced this, and even higher unemployment rates in the past, but with China’s rather large population, we’re about 30 million young people in a country with few safety nets.
China’s economy barely grew in the second quarter from the first and youth unemployment hit a record high in June, providing evidence of a fading recovery.
So what is Xi going to do when these 30 million hit the streets to demonstrate? Draft them and attack Taiwan?
… Are you talking about students? Lol
I doubt it, people in full time education aren’t generally counted as unemployed.
Here’s Chinese media talking about it. They’re obviously worried, but it’s obviously not an existential issue.
It’s a demographic. I’m sure there are Chinese students in there but a lot less than you think. The.secondary school system is selective in China. Point is that China has negative impacts from economic downturn which is affecting its population.
Their higher education enrollment percentage for that demographic is comparable to the US (60% vs 65%).
Does that include people in school?
The sources OP is likely citing, such as this one from CNBC (not an archived link, sorry), say it’s the youth unemployment rate, which I would assume does not include students or individuals not actively seeking work.
OP if you’d like to link your own preferred sources please do.
the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The sluggish pace of growth in 2023 is piling pressure on Beijing to reignite an expansion that is in danger of fizzling out as consumers refrain from spending and exports slump. A drawn-out real estate crunch and shaky local-government finances are compounding the gloom. More than a fifth of Chinese age 16 to 24 are out of work.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-economy-barely-grows-as-recovery-fades-5652a92a?mod=hp_lead_pos1
Thank you for the citation. The issue here is that ‘out of work’ is not a very useful phrase. Taken at face value, it just means not working and is not necessarily synonymous with unemployment in the way economists use it (i.e. actively looking for work but unable to find it).
This is possibly why queermunist expressed confusion about whether it included students. At first blanch, a ~20% unemployment rate does sound high.
I did turn up a useful SCMP article which highlights:
I’d like to refer back to the CNBC article (also using a 21.3% unemployment rate for 16 - 24 bracket) which notes that the unemployment for the graduate cohort appears to be temporary rather than structural. It’s not an enviable position to be in, definitely, but I wouldn’t say it’s at the point where students will demonstrate en masse like you suggested.
This is the official government reporting: https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01
As of Jun 2023, the “The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24(%)” was 21.3%.
The “Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 25 to 59(%)” was 4.1%.
The overall unemployment rate was 5.2%.
This site references the same data, but provides better visual charts:
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/youth-unemployment-rate
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/unemployment-rate
No. School is “work” in that statistic.
Am I supposed to believe a 1/5th of 16 year olds aren’t in school?
The situation isn’t really a lack of jobs, it’s that younger generations don’t want to work the factory jobs (because they all studied for better jobs) and there is pressure to look after parents. Not only is there an imbalance in young vs old people due to the one child policy but China also passed a law that required children to provide mental and financial support to their parents. Some parents are effectively paying their children to look after them, thereby removing them from the workforce count.
https://www.voanews.com/a/china-elder-care-law-a-struggle-for-one-child-families/1704200.html